Will Obama’s visit on January 26 lend
any substance to India-US relations? Read on.
The upcoming visit of US President
Barack Obama as the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day Celebrations is highly
symbolic to the trajectory of India-US relations. With this visit, Obama will
also be the only US president to have ever visited India twice during a
presidential tenure. Naysayers and carpers of the emerging India-US strategic
partnership would be tempted to dismiss the visit as high in optics and
showmanship but low in deliverables and substance. However, a mere cursory
examination of the contours of the relationship would prove the importance of
chemistry in the political leadership.
Be it the thaw seen in the final years
of the Clinton administration or the personal drive that President George W.
Bush invested in the India-US partnership, convergence at the highest levels
have always augured well for stitching together the various sectors of the
relationship. For instance, challenges persist in all major issues such as trade
and commerce, nuclear energy, climate change and defence cooperation. However,
positive energy pervades because of the importance that both Prime Minister
Narendra Modi and President Barack Obama lends to the relationship.
Start
of a New Legacy of Cooperation?
This has been clearly signaled in the
kind of reception that Modi got during his US visit, and the kind of spadework
being done for Obama’s visit to make it go beyond ceremonial. Hopes are high
that this meeting will take the Indo-US relations to the next level. Several
major issues of deliberations have been identified before Air Force One lands
in New Delhi. It might be argued that compared to the mandate that a popular
Prime Minister Modi has in India, a lame duck President Obama with falling
popularity would not bring much results. However, it has also been seen in
recent times that Obama has taken some
major foreign policy moves during the so called lame duck period, including the
climate change deal with China and the diplomatic moves to open up to Cuba
after 50 years.
Back at the home front, the Republicans
are equally, if not more, enthusiastic about America’s partnership with India.
This lays a positive ground for Obama to start a new legacy in strengthening
India-US partnership. The economics of the relationship certainly figures at
the top of the priority list with both the countries showing intent and the
ambition to boost bilateral trade figures to the tune of $500 billion. Major
groundwork is being carried out to revitalize the relationship; Trade Policy
Forum meeting late last year after a gap of four years manifests the effort. So
does the Indian sweat of setting up a committee to work on improving the investment
environment.
Both sides have also shown the resolve
to address issues related to Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). In this
context, the seriousness being shown to sign the long-pending Bilateral
Investment Treaty (BIT) should see some traction in the coming days. Several
CEOS are expected to be a part of the Obama entourage who will hold discussions
with their Indian peers under the aegis of the India-US CEO forum. A pivotal
component of the emerging strategic partnership between India and the United
States has been the defence cooperation. With India liberalizing Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) in this sector to the tune of 49%, potential of increased
trade is being seen. Both the countries have shown intent under the aegis of
the Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI) too. Ho wever, challenges
still persist in that while Indian emphasise on the need for access to the US
technology, the Americans emphasise on the need for access to Indian defence
market for the US companies.
India:
New Leadership, Fresh Eagerness
Nevertheless, constant communication
between the two Governments and the high priority attached to the relationship
as seen in the decision to renew the 10-year India-US defence framework
agreement signed in 2005, lends an air of confidence that the defence
cooperation will continue to grow in tandem with the partnership envisioned in
the Indo-Pacific region. Another consistent discussion between In dia and the US
has been on the implementation of energy cooperation measures such as execution
of nuclear deal, exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Indian shores,
investment in clean energy and exploring the possibility to import crude oil
from the US (amidst growing challenges of Iranian oil imports).While the US
could steadfast LNG exports to India, supporting its reeling natural gas
sector, besides offering a way forward for even exporting its crude oil to
India, it would, on the other hand, want India to be more clear on its nuclear
liability stand and its ‘Make in India’ vision to accomplish its Solar Mission
of 100 GW, which so far has done more harm than good.
Attempts have been made on Indian side
by quick fixing issues pertaining to nuclear liability clause and reversing the
damage to be incurred by the US investors in India’s National So lar Mission.
Indo-US Nuclear deal could get a fresh lease of life with proposals of setting
up a $242 million General Insurance fund in face of any fallout or nuclear
accident and revisiting Section 46 of the Liability Law to br ing more clarity
in differentiating civil and criminal li abilities of the suppliers. In its endeavour
to be on the same page, a sense of pragmatism was visible from both the
countries when the U.S. Solar company SunEdison signed a Memorandum of U nderstanding
with the Adani Group to develop India’s largest solar panel factory in Gujarat
with an objective to lower local production costs, while curbing dependency on
imported solar components. All these measures if put in right spirit has the
potential to enhance Indo-US energy cooperation. If substance ta kes over
showmanship, then talks expected high on the list are: countering terrorism,
cyber security and streamlining of visa issues for skilled Indian IT
professionals, besides pending agreement on social security.
All trained eyes will certainly be set
on the expected deliverables from the second Modi-Obama summit within four
months. However, even if no major breakthrough comes from the upcoming visit,
the political bonhomie that the visit will create will be a highlight in itself
for Indo-US relationsip.
(Dr. Monish Tourangbam is Assistant Professor at the Department of
Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University and Mr. Manish Vai d
is Junior Fello w at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
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